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A Brighter 2021

I started this entry on March 11, 2021 a full year after a global pandemic was declared. I’ve been a little slow to post it, but hey that’s just where we are right now. In previous posts I’ve noted that 2020 was a difficult year for almost everyone in our community, particularly for underrepresented and marginalized community members. The murder of George Floyd, the protests that followed, the contentious 2020 election and failed insurrection that followed in January all occurring in the midst of a global pandemic. As I’ve noted before soccer has been largely secondary or really further down the list of priorities. Still as symbolic as collective action can feel in sports, sports, impact and are impacted by society. There is a deeper history at the intersection of sport and social change, one that deserves a much longer discussion and it’s a topic I look forward to exploring as this blog progresses.

For now, since I believe we can do multiple things at once, it’s time to take a step back and welcome the MLS season that is upon us. Of course, I’ve been following my EPL forever team, West Ham United bring together a magical year (Champions League or Bust!). Yet, as thrilling as they have been to watch across the pond, it doesn’t quite compare to sitting at Alliance Field listening to the chats of “Minnesota Black and Blue” serenade throughout the stadium. Then a post here, a schedule there, a little bit of signing news everywhere and it hit me. We are only a month a WEEK away from the opening of the MLS season!

The Loons will open with a repeat of the 2020 Western Conference Championship rematch against the Seattle Sounders. Last year’s match ended up being thrilling, but also sad as the Loons just fell short losing 3 to 2 to the Sounders who went on to lose to the Columbus Crew. The Sounders have retooled and I see that the odds makers in Vegas are currently slotting the Sounders just behind LAFC to win MLS Cup in 2021. Playing in Seattle, against the Sounders in April is a tough hill to climb, though in recent years the Sounders have started slow in the spring before beginning their steamroller-like roll into the fall.

For now, I’m just happy to be back, paying a little more attention to the Loons and thinking about when I’ll get back to the stadium, or at least the Black Hart for a game. Welcome back Loonies, spring is around the corner with maybe one more orange ball game in our future before May.

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Loon Watch

Loons sign Ramón “Wanchope” Ábila

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MNUFC Playoff Preview Against Colorado

Well today is the day. The Loons begin their push for the cup at 6:30 tonight at Allianz Field against the Colorado Rapids. Weather should be crisp in the mid-30s, but no snow in the forecast.

I feel awkward about this, but I feel good about this game for MNUFC. I think they match up well against the Rapids and while the Loons might not have the home crowd in the stadium tonight, they will benefit from not having to travel this weekend. This feeling of confidence makes me increasingly nervous about tonight’s match. I’ve been sleeping on Colorado all year and they are coming into tonight’s game with some momentum winning their last three games of the season.

My prediction is that this one is slow through the first 30 minutes. Both teams will be testing each other and the cold will initially alter some of the play. Just before half, the Loons go up by 1 after a nice combination in the midfield. Colorado will come out strong and by the 50th minutes we’ll be all even up at 1-1. The Loons fire back on a set piece in the 67th minute and the Black and Blue faithful sit on pins and needles through 6 minutes of extra time.

Final: Loons 2-1 winning their first playoff match.

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Expectations vs. Reality

This blog has not taken the direction that I thought it would this year. Then again neither has this year. I write this entry 11 months after the Covid-19 virus tragically raged through Wuhan, China and then throughout the rest of the world. In March, a MLS season still seemed possible until it didn’t. Shortly after the Portland game my attention was pulled elsewhere as the virus started to surge on the coasts and make it way into the Great Lakes. The season, like so many aspects of life, were placed on hold.

Then, as MLS was putting in place measures for a restart, on May 25, 2020 a man named George Floyd was murdered by Minneapolis police. Floyd’s death underlined the racial injustices, systematic racism, and institutional violence experienced on a daily basis by Black, Indigenous, People of Color (BIPOC). Protests followed not only in Minneapolis and St. Paul, but also across the United States and the world. The issues highlighted were not new or unknown. Activists and community leaders have been working to confront these issues for years, but during the summer of 2020 they gained a greater sense of urgency.

As the MLS opened the regular season again, players from around the league came together to raise each other’s voices in solidarity. They form the Black Players for Change committed to action beyond the powerful 8 minute and 46 seconds moments of silence held at the beginning of games marking the amount of time elapsed while George Floyd struggled for breath. Floyd’s death may have opened the floodgates, but he was not alone. Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbey, Philando Castile, Michael Brown, Eric Garner, Tamir Rice, on and on these names of human beings whose lives were shortened because of the racial injustices within our society. Before you keep reading check out Black Players for Change here: https://blackplayersforchange.org/. For more on Black Lives Matter here’s a link https://blacklivesmatter.com/.

Then in the midst of a pandemic and a long overdue societal reckoning with systemic racism, the United States experienced one of the most contentious presidential elections in recent memory, an election in which one of the candidates refused to disavow white supremacy. That same candidate still refuses to concede that he has lost, and instead seems to be set on working towards an administrative coup d’état attempt rather than committing to a peaceful transfer of power.

And so here I sit a day before the first MNUFC playoff game of 2020 thinking… soccer?  

With so many other things going on, this blog fell by the wayside, and that’s ok, it is only a hobby. It’s something to have fun with, to send out into the ether occasionally. For some people sports are a frivolous use of our time better spent on working to cure cancer or tear down the systems of oppression that permeate our society. At times I agree, especially when the importance people place on sports is out of balance. Throughout this time of crisis, others have pointed out that sports are often a rallying cry, a welcome distraction, a brief escape, and at their best even able to inspire for good. I think about some of those moments, Jesse Owens’s achievements during the 1936 Olympics Games in Nazi Berlin or the image of Tommie Smith and John Carlos in raising their fists in Mexico in 1968.

When placed in the proper perspective sports, like theater, music, art, all make life more enjoyable and can even change the world for the better. A piece of art that stops you in your tracks with its power and moves you to action changes the world in a small way. A community that forms around the shared enjoyment of a soccer club strengthens our ties to each other. There are a lot of seemingly overwhelming problems in the world that feel far too large for a single individual to address. And of course that is true. The only way to begin to tackle the issues of, a contentious election, a global pandemic, confronting white supremacy, not to mention climate change that continues to lurk in the background, is through collective actions taken together in solidarity by our larger society.

It’s been an impactful year for me both personally and professionally. As MNUFC season starts to wind down I find myself carving out a little more time to watch a few more games. I cannot always watch these games with my family and friends, but even knowing they were watching the same game as me helps me feel closer to those I still cannot be with. They also provided 90 minutes for my brain to shut down its analytical processing and simply enjoy something.

I’m picking this blog up now not because any of these issues have been resolved. Despite recent positive news about a vaccine, Covid-19 will continue to rage across the world until at least next spring, the overt as well as the insidious nature of systemic racism continues to plague the United States, and even the current election has rocked once stable American political structures. In my own corner of the world, I am trying to figure out how I can be part of a positive solution to these issues.

This is a soccer blog and so the analogy is low hanging fruit, but collectively, when 11 individuals know their role and together use their talents towards accomplishing a larger purpose, they can create moments that transcend sports. They can overcome obstacles too large for a single individual to accomplish. I’m still learning and finding my role in all of this, but I hope many of you are doing so as well and together we can bend the world towards greater equity, justice, and avoid environmental destruction.

In the meantime I am following the Loons just a little bit more closely because those 90 minutes provide a respite and reenergize me for the work ahead. So I hope to continue with this blog. Maybe not with the frequency or energy I imagined it would have, but with it all in the proper perspective. Keep a lookout for a few more posts throughout the playoffs from 12th Loon.

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Over/Under

Over/Under Reaction Week 1

Amarilla is more than just a 25 goal/season player. He’s an MVP in the makingAmarilla will struggle to hit 25 goals let alone a dozen of them.
I’m a little bit further to the left on this one. I think Amarilla played pretty well in game 1. Little things like knowing when it’s best to just take the ball to the corner and win a corner kick instead of ignoring the wall of defense and blindly pushing through is impressive to me. He obviously has skill on and off the ball and his connection with Finlay for the header was excellent. I hope the midfield is able to feed him better in future games because Amarilla is going to be able to make lemonade.
Reynoso-who? Molino is the true #10 for the rest of the season.It’s obvious that Molino has lost a step and only scored because of 2 gimmies from a poor Portland defense.
Put me on the right side here. I thought Molino looked sluggish. I think his goals were the result of being in the right place at the right time. That’s certainly a great feature to have, don’t get me wrong.  I just think Portland’s defense was rough around the edges and made a lot of mistakes that we were able to capitalize on, especially in transition. Molino is a fine piece coming off the bench, but I don’t think we’ll be as successful with him in the long term as with a DP in that spot. 
The Loons defense is better than last year.The Loons defense is shallow and is one injury from total ineptitude.
I’m right in the middle of these views. Our defense is good and will continue to stay good. It feels very “bend but don’t break.” Portland’s attack couldn’t get a clear shot on goal and we kept the pressure on. Players like Yimmy Chara couldn’t overwhelm us with pace. Our height was a big advantage both defensively and offensively. I love Opara.

But also… we will get into some card trouble if we need to be overpowering opponents like we were. I can see more penalties and plenty more cards coming. I’m terrified of losing Opara or Metanire to injury because I think our defense falls apart quick without those two.
Miller is a worthy replacement for Vito Mannone and will contribute with a few assists this season.Miller takes a lot of risks and he was caught out of position more times than comfortable. 
Miller is good. Do I trust him in goal? Yes. Would I feel better had Mannone become the highest paid keeper in the MLS? Definitely. Am I upset having Miller? Absolutely not. Is Miller going to cost us a goal every once in a while? Certainly. Is it the end of the world? No.
Counter-attacking works. We outlasted Portland and took control of the game because we didn’t attack all out at the start.Counter-attacking will not work & we were sluggish from the get-go. That will cost us goals and points in the future.
We’ll see on this. I think it was wise to counter-attack against Portland. I loved watching Finlay tear up that right side. I especially liked that it won us the game. It’s not going to work every time and it’s also not going to be our main strategy this season. I can see us taking the offensive more often than not. We’ll see how things shake out over the course of a season.
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Recaps

Portland vs Loons Recap

Well the first game is in the books and MNUFC comes away with the best possible result. No serious injuries, a good test against an opponent that potentially will be competing for one of the last playoff spots, and the win on the road. For everyone keeping track at home that 3 points and the Loons are at the top of the Western Conference.

Providence Park is a tough place to play. The Timber Army brings the noise and it being the home opener I imagine it only added to the sense of excitement. The Loons started out slow. Much of the first 15 minutes was spent fending off the Timber’s attacks. The defensive core looked good though. The Loons are returning much of that defensive core and it showed. New keeper Tyler Miller seemed to mesh well with the backline and even contributed to the third goal of the Loons with a deep ball to Luis Amarilla.

Early on in the match it seemed to me that the midfield was hesitant to connect and control. It really wasn’t until the second half that the Loons started to look comfortable on the pitch. This perception was further illuminated by looking at the percentages of ball possession. Overall the Loons maintained a 42.5% ball possession. You can check these charts out yourself on the MNUFC recap article. I really like looking at the five-minute intervals on possession. It lays out just how much ball control the Timbers maintained. I was particularly interested to see how much control the Timbers held during the 15 minute mark and 35 minute mark at over 70% of possession during those periods. The highest the Loons ever had was during the 70th minute at 57.9%. This leads me to believe a few things. One, as many soccer fans know, time of possession doesn’t necessary mean much about who wins a match. It does indicate an overall strategy. The Loons were far more successful having the Timbers come onto their half of the field, making defensive plays, clearing the ball and quickly counterattacking. 

The Loon’s goals demonstrated this. Molino’s opportunistic goal was great and seemed to open the play of the Loons up. While Finlay seemed to be quiet throughout during the early part of the game the three goals all flowed through him. Two of them directly came from his efforts in chasing down balls and making plays happen.

You can watch all of the Loons’ goals in the recap here. Look at the replay of Molino’s first goal. It comes on a counterattacking play. The ball is pushed ahead for Finlay to chase down. He collects the ball down the right side and sends a service to the center to Lod. Portland’s keeper Clark does well to stop the initial attack, but thankfully Molino follows the play and takes the rebound in for a goal. However all of the goals start with the Loons’ defensive and two with Finlay chasing down a counterattacking ball.

The Loons’ second goal looks similar to the first. Again the Loons are counterattacking and again it’s Finlay using speed to come down the right side of the pitch. This time it’s Luis Amarilla who runs parallel to Finlay. Amarilla drifts out wide left and the defender loses him for an instant. Finlay’s cross is perfect and all Amarilla has to do is finish (I know finishing is hard, but appreciate the proper service from Finlay here) which he does with a flourish. It’s another great goal coming from Finlay’s run. This goal depresses the Timbers just enough to open up an opportunity for MNUFC’s third goal.

Less than two minutes later the Loons have taken advantage of the Timbers momentary let down and are now attacking with numbers. The ball is in a dangerous location in front of the net. Finlay again has the ball, pops it over his head and finds the foot of Molino ready to put it away for the 3-1 lead. How did the ball get to the center? That’s right a counterattack. This came from a long ball to Amarilla who holds it up and is able to find Molino and then Finlay in the center.

As for the Timbers, Valeri’s penalty kick was painful. Defenders need to know where they are standing and adjust to how the ref is calling the game. The Loons were physical and were called for it throughout the match, but it’s hard to criticize the effort in the box during this moment especially when taking the game in as a whole when so many of the goal scoring opportunities came out of the back through counterattacking opportunities. 

So what does this all mean going forward? Well it’s still too small of a sample size to say whether this is what the Loons will look like all year or if this was a just a sound strategy to defeat a Portland team that prefers to hold possession. Overall this was a solid game. It wasn’t perfect, but it was effective and had some quite a bit of beauty. Counterattacking soccer can be very exciting to watch and is beautiful soccer in its own right. So good match fellas. I’m looking forward to seeing more of this great effort this Saturday.

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2020 Predictions

Can you feel it? The sun is hanging around just a little bit longer. The snow piles are turning just a bit more grey, and I could smell no less than three families grilling over the weekend around my neighborhood. It can only mean that March is around the corner and with it the start of the 25th edition of the MLS season!

March 1st has been marked for months on my calendar. The Loons head to the Cascadia region to take on the Portland Timbers for the season opener. Finally the long MLS off-season is coming to a close and we can start answering important questions like how many home games will the Loons have to play with an orange ball due to snow? Can you use snowman as part of your wall? Will there be hot chocolate at the stadium?

Seriously though, since their entrance into the league three years ago the Loons have shown steady progress. Of course being blown out in the first two games helped to lower expectations, but even in that first season the Loons held it together and has been building steadily ever since culminating last season where they capped off the opening of Allianz Field with a trip to the finals of the Lamar’s Cup and their first trip to the MLS playoffs. My biggest question is where do the Loons go from here? 

It’s early in the season, but I am optimistic that the Loons will make the playoffs again this year. The Western Conference is tough, tougher I think than the Eastern Conference, but I’m still projecting the Loons to be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the season. Based on commentators around the league, there seem to be at least a few people giving the Loons a chance to be contenders this year. Here’s how I think the conference shake out.

Western Conference

  1. Los Angeles Football Club
  2. Seattle Sounders FC
  3. LA Galaxy
  4. Minnesota United FC
  5. Sporting Kansas City
  6. FC Dallas
  7. Portland Timbers
  8. San Jose Earthquakes
  9. Real Salt Lake
  10. Houston Dynamo
  11. Colorado Rapids
  12. Nashville SC
  13. Vancouver Whitecaps

I think the Loons not only have a good shot at the playoffs, but I think they get another home playoff game. With my projections they would be playing Sporting Kansas City in the first round, and this time I think they win their first round game. This likely sets up a match for the Loons in L.A. and I think this where the Loons’s season ends. Meanwhile both the home team, the Galaxy and Sounders, win. This time the Galaxy defeat the Sounders to play LAFC in the western conference championship. Chicahrito does what Zlatan couldn’t and the Galaxy play NYCFC in MLS Cup 25.

As for stats I think the Loons continue to improve on their defense. Last year they only allowed 43 goals. I think they bring this to under 40 and allow only 39 goals in during the 2020 campaign. The Loons scored 50 goals last season. We’ll see if Luis Amarilla can boost this tally, and I think in this system can he. I do think the Loons improve and score 57 goals.

Eastern Conference 

Folks are going to be paying attention to expansion side Inter Miami CF and Atlantic United FC, but that means a lot of people are going to be sleeping on the champions of the East again, New York City FC. 

  1. New York City FC
  2. D.C. United
  3. Philadelphia Union
  4. Atlanta United
  5. Columbus Crew
  6. Toronto FC
  7. New England Revolution
  8. Orlando City
  9. Inter Miami CF
  10. New York Red Bulls
  11. Chicago Fire
  12. Montreal Impact
  13. FC Cincinnati

In this playoff picture, D.C. slips up against the New England Revolution and Toronto who started the season slow dismantle the Union. Atlanta is the sole home side victor. In the second round NYCFC outplays the Revs and Toronto finds a way against Atlanta again. NYCFC wins the Eastern Conference and heads to MLS Cup 25.

High scoring MLS 25 ends 3-2 with New York City FC winning it all.